{
  "artifact": "x402-settlement-cut",
  "publisher": "ScriptMasterLabs",
  "title": "x402 settlement cut: bridge, cycle, facilitator, agent",
  "version": "2026-10-02.1",
  "published": "2026-10-02",
  "kind": "secondary_cut",
  "claim": "Headline x402 volume is not agent commerce. 88% of the August EVM money was a bridge. Agent-shaped Base and Polygon payments moved about $57,000. 91 wallets cleared the organic bar.",
  "audience": "x402 Foundation and premier members",
  "derived": {
    "agent_share_of_august_evm_dollars": 0.000022,
    "note": "$57,000 / $2.59B. Shown on the page as 0.002%. Bridge dollars rendered as 88% of the same total. Derived, not a new measurement."
  },
  "not_claimed": [
    "This is not a fresh chain index.",
    "Agent labels are inherited inference, not proof of an autonomous model.",
    "Source windows do not match. Do not add them.",
    "No ScriptMasterLabs revenue, buyer, or ranking is asserted here."
  ],
  "rerun": {
    "seconds": 90,
    "steps": [
      "Open the Bitquery August 2026 investigation and read the five-chain total, the Arbitrum bridge share, and the Base+Polygon agent-dollar line.",
      "Open the x402stats October 2026 report and read organic volume, organic seller count, median seller, and facilitator share.",
      "Open the x402stats methodology and read the four organic filters.",
      "Open agenteconomy.to August row for the transaction-count series.",
      "Compare. If a number moved, bump version. Do not merge windows."
    ],
    "sources": [
      {"id": "bitquery-2026-09-06", "url": "https://bitquery.io/investigations/x402-ai-agent-payments-audit", "window": "August 2026, measured 2026-09-05", "role": "chain shape: bridge vs agent-priced payments"},
      {"id": "x402stats-2026-10", "url": "https://x402stats.io/reports/2026-10", "window": "30 days ending about 2026-10-01", "role": "organic seller filter and facilitator share"},
      {"id": "x402stats-methodology", "url": "https://x402stats.io/methodology", "window": "coverage from 2025-05-09", "role": "organic definition"},
      {"id": "agenteconomy-2026-09-23", "url": "https://agenteconomy.to/stats/is-x402-growing", "window": "monthly, as of 2026-09-23", "role": "transaction count vs settled dollars"}
    ]
  },
  "buckets": [
    {
      "id": "bridge",
      "label": "Bridge",
      "window": "August 2026",
      "source": "bitquery-2026-09-06",
      "inference": true,
      "finding": "One Arbitrum CCTP extension contract is 97.5% of that chain's x402-shaped volume and 88% of the five-EVM-chain dollar total.",
      "figures": {
        "five_evm_settled_usd": 2590000000,
        "arbitrum_usd": 2330000000,
        "arbitrum_payments": 339249,
        "arbitrum_median_usd": 25.61,
        "bridge_share_of_money": 0.88,
        "contract_share_of_arbitrum": 0.975,
        "payers": 34577,
        "address": "0xa95d9c1f655341597c94393fddc30cf3c08e4fce"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "agent_meter",
      "label": "Agent-shaped meter",
      "window": "August 2026",
      "source": "bitquery-2026-09-06",
      "inference": true,
      "finding": "About 71% of payments on Base and Polygon look like agents by price and repetition. Those payments moved about $57,000 between them.",
      "figures": {
        "payment_share_base_polygon": 0.71,
        "dollars_between_them_usd": 57000,
        "base_payments": 9698150,
        "base_usd": 35900000,
        "base_median_usd": 0.006,
        "polygon_payments": 8132190,
        "polygon_usd": 136500000,
        "polygon_median_usd": 0.01,
        "base_repeater": "0x2b4ee3387008e5ff1a9996fc8b48d2fd61389037",
        "base_repeater_payments": 13200000,
        "base_repeater_distinct_prices": 183820
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "one_cent_cycle",
      "label": "One-cent cycle",
      "window": "August 2026",
      "source": "bitquery-2026-09-06",
      "inference": true,
      "finding": "One Polygon address collected 5.7 million payments of exactly one cent, $57,115. A cutoff just under a cent hides the whole loop.",
      "figures": {
        "payments": 5700000,
        "usd": 57115,
        "unit_usd": 0.01,
        "address": "0x66fa4d79ca84016b42352be33c908dd812952ec8"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "merchant_checkout",
      "label": "Merchant checkout",
      "window": "August 2026",
      "source": "bitquery-2026-09-06",
      "inference": true,
      "finding": "The only processor Bitquery found charging a fee took 1% on Base and earned $59,295. Ethereum's x402-shaped flow is larger payments between people: 57,632 payments, $87.3m, median $72.16, 92 agent-priced payments.",
      "figures": {
        "processor_fee_earnings_usd": 59295,
        "processor_fee_rate": 0.01,
        "ethereum_payments": 57632,
        "ethereum_usd": 87300000,
        "ethereum_median_usd": 72.16,
        "ethereum_agent_payments": 92
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "organic_seller",
      "label": "Organic seller",
      "window": "30 days to about 2026-10-01",
      "source": "x402stats-2026-10",
      "inference": true,
      "finding": "After the organic filter, 91 businesses earned, on $793k organic volume. Raw volume was $960k across 37,495 wallets. Median seller revenue was $0.01. Top 10 wallets held 76%. Trailing-week paying agents rounded to zero.",
      "figures": {
        "organic_businesses": 91,
        "organic_volume_usd": 793000,
        "raw_volume_usd": 960000,
        "organic_share": 0.83,
        "wallets_receiving_anything": 37495,
        "top10_volume_share": 0.76,
        "median_seller_revenue_30d_usd": 0.01,
        "daily_paying_agents_trailing_week": 0,
        "organic_volume_change": -0.32,
        "organic_business_change": 13
      },
      "filter": [
        "revenue >= $100 in the window",
        ">= 3 distinct buyer wallets",
        "average payment >= $0.001",
        "wallet is not a known facilitator settlement address"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "facilitator",
      "label": "Facilitator throughput",
      "window": "30 days to about 2026-10-01",
      "source": "x402stats-2026-10",
      "inference": false,
      "finding": "Facilitator share is settlement throughput, not seller income. Coinbase 42%, PayAI 17%, Figment 16%, Meridian 13%, FluxA 9%, three-ws 1%. Named settlement wallets are excluded from organic because they would otherwise rank as the largest sellers.",
      "figures": {
        "coinbase": 0.42,
        "payAI": 0.17,
        "figment-facilitator": 0.16,
        "mrdn": 0.13,
        "fluxa": 0.09,
        "three-ws": 0.01
      },
      "excluded_settlement_examples": [
        "Meridian 0x8e7769d4…",
        "RelAI 0x1892f72f…",
        "FluxA 0xd2f74a14…"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "count_vs_dollars": {
    "source": "agenteconomy-2026-09-23",
    "as_of": "2026-09-23",
    "august_2026_transactions": 17855635,
    "august_2026_volume_usd": 437476,
    "august_average_payment_usd": 0.0245,
    "november_2025_volume_usd": 20544830,
    "november_2025_average_payment_usd": 0.39,
    "december_2025_transactions": 54248231,
    "note": "August transaction count rose 197% vs July and settled dollars did not return to the November 2025 peak. Count and money are different series."
  },
  "conflicts": [
    "Bitquery's August five-chain total is $2.59B. agenteconomy.to's August settled volume is $437,476. The gap is scope: bridge-shaped transfers vs a narrower x402 settlement index. Both can be true. Neither is 'agent GDP'.",
    "x402stats organic volume of $793k is a later 30-day window and a different filter. Do not subtract it from the August bridge number.",
    "Solana transaction-count claims are a third cut. Bitquery treated sponsored sub-cent Solana flow as a shape, not a standard, and flagged dust."
  ],
  "quotable": [
    "88% of the August EVM money was one bridge contract.",
    "71% of the Base and Polygon payments looked like agents and moved about $57,000.",
    "91 wallets cleared the organic bar. The median seller made $0.01.",
    "A facilitator settlement wallet is not a seller."
  ]
}